2025 Pre-Holiday Spending Survey: How to Win When Every Dollar is Debated

What the Pre Holiday Survey Data Says (and how to take effective action)

The Squeeze is Real

The survey data is clear: three out of four shoppers (75%) plan to cut back compared to last year’s holiday spending, and only 4.5% expect to spend more. When it comes how much they plan to spend this year, most stated that $250–$749 was their goal – and yet a striking 18% still plan to spend $1,000+, highlighting a polarized marketplace of value-driven and premium consumers.

External data reinforces this state of cautious consumption. U.S. inflation ticked up again in August, with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.9% year-over-year and food prices up 3.2%. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 55.1 in September, down 21% from a year earlier. Taking a more optimistic view, Deloitte forecasts holiday retail sales to grow just 2.9–3.4%, compared to 4.2% actual growth for holiday 2024 with e-commerce expected to grow at a healthy pace of 7%-9% year-over-year.

Sticking with the Basics, Skipping the Luxury

Survey respondents are planning to prioritize essentials doubling down in core categories like groceries (74%), apparel (71%), packaged foods (60%), toys (56%), and electronics (57%). At the same time, they expect to cut costs in discretionary categories like electronics (44%), luxury goods (40%), apparel (39%), and home décor (38%).

According to Mastercard, when it comes to electronics AI tech-powered health and wellness equipment will be flexing this season: Spending on new fitness brands grew at 30% year over year from 2023-2024 as compared to 5% for conventional fitness clubs in the US.

The message is clear: consumers will still buy gifts, but they’ll reframe purchases around necessity, advanced technology and practicality, trimming indulgence and deferring big-ticket splurges.

Shopping Shifts: Digital First, Deal Driven

Holiday 2024 set a record with $241.4 billion in U.S. online sales (+8.7% YoY), with mobile surpassing 54% of transactions and Buy Now, Pay Later usage reaching an all-time high of $18.2 billion.

You can expect those digitally-driven behaviors to continue this year. Our survey confirms this behavior: 69% plan to shop online, compared to 61% in-store, with 20% using curbside pickup. Timing revolves around event-driven savings—Black Friday online (68%), Cyber Monday (58%), and Black Friday in-store (50%) remain the biggest anchors.

Promotions Drive Sales

Price isn’t just a factor; it’s the deciding factor. In our survey, 82% named price as their most important shopping driver. Promotions are the top purchase trigger, with shoppers preferring:

• % off (61%)
• Dollar-off deals (61%)
• BOGO offers (59%)
• Free shipping (59%)

Nearly 60% say they’ll use coupons always or frequently, particularly in stalwart couponing categories like groceries (63%), but also in apparel (52%), and electronics (44%). Simplicity and transparency are the throughline: shoppers want clear, direct value they can see instantly and act quickly - Consumer promotions can’t be ignored this season with deal-hunting holiday revelers.

The Channels That Influence

Think your email marketing is as stale as last year’s punchbowl? Think again - consumers still lean heavily on email (80%) to receive promotions, with SMS/text (44%) and in-app notifications (33%) playing important supporting roles. When looking for the best deals, online search (81%) dominates, but in-store discovery (58%) and social media (43%) continue to matter.

The takeaway: omnichannel consistency is critical. Email, messaging, promotions, and fulfillment need to line up across online, social and physical experiences.

How to Take Action NOW!

Key Takeaways

The combined story from our survey data and the broader market is clear: Holiday 2025 is a value-clarity contest. Consumers will spend, but they’ll scrutinize every dollar.

Get Your Yuletide Registers Ringing:

1. Remember your A,B,P’s – Always Be Promoting 

Focus on a handful of clear headline deals, supported by loyalty multipliers and personalized offers to deepen engagement. Use rebates, digital coupons and promotions to your advantage leveraging them across all of you media channels

2. Lead with transparent value.

Simplify offers around dollars off, percent off, and free shipping. Bundle discretionary products into value-driven configurations.

3. Eventize your promotional calendar.

Build momentum in early November, but anchor your best promotions around Black Friday and Cyber Monday when your shoppers are actively in-market and hunting for bargains.

4. Incent Loyalty Later.

Its more efficient to keep a shopper than it is to acquire a new one. Drive acquisition with your promotions but shortly after activate loyalty strategies that stimulate repeat post-holiday purchases in the new year and after the frenzy has dissipated. Offer Buy Now Pay Later and flexible pay options at checkout, and ensure inventory and pricing are synchronized across channels.

5. Maximize your owned channels.

 Use email as the backbone of your marketing communication to amplify awareness, follow up with SMS and app notifications for urgency-driven traffic-driving reminders.

 

See the full results of the ' Unwrapping Consumer Intentions - Insights from a 2025 Pre-Holiday Consumer Survey' here. 

Stay top of mind with inflation conscious consumers with the right combination of engagement, promotions and loyalty strategies. Contact us to discover how our best-in-class promotions and loyalty solutions can help to deliver value, drive sales and engage your customers this season.