How Rising Gas Prices are Reshaping American Grocery Carts - Consumer Survey

1. The squeeze is real

Over 31% respondents said gas price increases have significantly or extremely impacted their household budget. Only 13% said they felt no impact at all. More telling: 66.4% have already changed their overall spending habits as a direct result with 20.6% making significant changes and 45.8% making moderate ones. This is not a low-income phenomenon. The breadth of impact across the full income distribution means the pressure is showing up in household budgets everywhere.

“How do they offset that? Going out to a movie theater or going to a theme park or going out to eat — all those areas would be more likely to see cuts.” Mark Mathews, Chief Economist, National Retail Federation.  

Our survey confirms this trade-off is already happening. When asked which spending categories they had cut, dining out led all responses at 63.6% - the single highest result. clothing (44.7%), Entertainment (43.2%), and travel (38.9%) followed. Groceries were not immune either: nearly 36% said they had reduced grocery spending by trading down or buying less.

Key Takeaway

The pressure is widespread but not universal. Roughly one-third remain less affected, but for the majority, value is now a baseline expectation.

2. Grocery spending is up, and shoppers are cutting anyway

A counterintuitive but important finding: 37.6% of shoppers report their weekly grocery spend has increased compared to three months ago, yet simultaneously, the majority are actively cutting back. The explanation: grocery prices are rising faster than shoppers can compensate through behavior change, so many are spending more while still trying to spend less. Also, increased spending on grocery could easily be attributed to consumers cutting back on dining out and eating more at home.

Inside the grocery cart, the biggest cutback categories are:

Key Takeaway

Discretionary grocery categories like snacks, alcohol, meat, and prepared foods take the sharpest hits. These are the categories where brand premium is most vulnerable and where promotions and price incentives have historically driven meaningful volume recovery. But the fact that even produce and dairy are seeing cutbacks signals that pressure is reaching into essential categories too.

3. Trip frequency is declining, but basket size is growing

Shopping patterns themselves are shifting significantly. Over 5 in 10 shoppers (51.3%) said they had changed how often they shop in-store, 29.8% by consolidating trips and 21.5% by going less frequently. This is a rational fuel-saving adaptation: fewer drives, larger baskets. When it comes to where they shop, the most common adjustment is choosing stores closer to home (26.1%). Another 13.1% have shifted more purchases online, effectively eliminating fuel cost from the equation. Only 13% have switched to lower-priced retailers outright.

Key Takeaway

For retailers, trip consolidation means bigger per-trip baskets, but also more deliberate, list-driven shoppers who are less susceptible to impulse purchases. That’s significant for any brand or retailer dependent on foot traffic. Proximity and digital convenience are now genuine competitive advantages, not just nice-to-haves.

4. Private label is winning, local sourcing is not

The changes aren’t just about spending less, they’re about spending differently. The data is clear on which adaptations shoppers are actually making:

Local sourcing ranks last, at less than half the adoption rate of private label switching. It is not a meaningful cost-management tool in the eyes of most shoppers.

Key Takeaway

Private label trade-down is the defining behavioral shift of this period. For national brands, the pressure to justify a price premium through visible promotions, pack-size innovation, or quality storytelling has never been higher. In a moment when 40% of shoppers have already switched to store brands and more than a third are actively seeking coupons and cashback, the brands that show up with targeted, verified, and meaningful incentives have a real opportunity to hold and even grow share.

5. The budget pressure postpones major purchases

Gas prices are also doing damage well beyond the grocery store. 38.5% of respondents said they had delayed or postponed a major purchase because of higher prices. Among those, travel (44.4%), electronics (43.4%), and appliances (41.8%) topped the list of categories being put off. This is not just a grocery story, it’s a broader consumer confidence signal.

Key Takeaway

The deferral of major purchases across categories points to a multi-front squeeze. Shoppers arriving at the store are financially stretched elsewhere, reinforcing the urgency of value positioning, promotions, and loyalty investment to protect basket size and visit frequency.

6. Forward sentiment is cautious and behavior will deepen

Looking ahead, the outlook among shoppers is sobering. 46% are very or extremely concerned that grocery costs will continue rising over the next six months. Less than 6% said they had no concern at all.

When asked what they’ll do if fuel prices remain high or increase further, the top declared actions are:

That last data point matters for brands. Consumer openness to promotions tends to spike in periods of economic stress — and right now, that window is open.

“Food gets to the grocery store on diesel, whether it’s on a truck or on a boat. If oil prices remain elevated, fresh foods that must be transported quickly could see price hikes more quickly than packaged foods.” David Ortega, Professor of Food Economics and Policy, Michigan State University  

Key Takeaway

The intent to cook more at home is a major opportunity for grocery retailers to capture food service spend, particularly in meal kits, fresh ingredients, and prepared meal components. Promotions and loyalty programs are not optional; 43.7% of consumers are actively planning to seek them out. Brands that wait for the environment to stabilize risk losing trial that is hard to recapture.

Hypothesis Scorecard

What this means for brands and marketers

For brands and marketers, the strategic imperative is unambiguous: competing on awareness alone is insufficient. Shoppers who are consolidating trips, trading down, and actively hunting promotions are making calculated decisions at every touchpoint. The brands that show up with tangible value i.e. the right price point, the right pack size, the right promotion / offer at the right moment, will hold their ground. The ones that don't will lose share to private label and struggle to win it back.

See the full results of the 'At the Pump and in the Aisle: How Rising Gas Prices are Reshaping American Grocery Carts' here. 

Stay top of mind with inflation conscious consumers with the right combination of engagement, promotions and loyalty strategies. Contact us to discover how our best-in-class promotions and loyalty solutions can help to deliver value, drive sales and engage your customers this season.